Climate change in West Africa: estimating temperature threshold for agricultural productivity

Chimere O. Iheonu, Simplice Asongu, Ekene ThankGod Emeka and Ebuka C. Orjiakor

Oxford Development Studies, 2025, vol. 53, issue 4, 388-406

Abstract: This study aims to estimate the temperature threshold for agricultural productivity in West Africa, as little is known about the temperature threshold for agricultural production. The study utilizes the Driscoll and Kraay regression, the Prais-Winsten regression, and the Quantile Regression (QR) as estimation strategies for 16 West African countries between 1990 and 2021. The findings reveal a threshold value of 24.39 degrees Celsius, above which temperature reduces agricultural productivity. Moreover, the result from the QR reveals a threshold value of 25.27 degrees Celsius in countries where the existing level of agricultural productivity is low. These findings carry significant policy implications for the West African region, as the mean annual temperature is above these threshold values, emphasizing the importance of adopting a comprehensive approach that integrates climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The findings further call for proactive measures from West African governments and stakeholders to effect climate-resilient agricultural practices.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13600818.2025.2533845

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