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Technology, employment and the business cycle in post-transition countries of the EU

Vladimir Arčabić

Post-Communist Economies, 2016, vol. 28, issue 4, 537-560

Abstract: This article analyses the importance of technology and non-technology shocks in the business cycles of European Union post-transition countries. Different assumptions of New Keynesian and Real Business Cycle theory are tested. The results demonstrate that a non-technology shock is more important in explaining business cycles in post-transition countries, although a technology shock is not trivial. The technology shock cannot replicate basic business cycle facts observed in the data: it produces a low or negative correlation between employment and GDP, and a strong negative correlation between labour productivity and employment. Technology and non-technology GDP components are analysed in the transition and post-transition period. The results show a non-technology shock was the dominant source of business cycles both during and after the transition period.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2016.1237337

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