Serbia’s multi-vector foreign policy: the effects on trade with the European Union and Russia

Nataša Stanojević

Post-Communist Economies, 2025, vol. 37, issue 1-2, 51-74

Abstract: The article delves into an analysis of the opportunities and risks inherent in Serbian foreign trade, emanating from the country’s multi-vector foreign policy. This study quantitatively evaluates the influence of the political rapprochement with Russia on Serbian exports to both Russia and EU, as its principal export market. Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research reveals that the rapprochement with Russia, even in the long term, exerts a positive and significant impact on Serbian exports to Russia, while simultaneously avoiding adverse effects on trade with the EU. Given the integral role in the value chains of EU companies, this export orientation remains insensitive to Serbia’s foreign-political relations, as well as to various customary economic variables. The resulting recommendations for the Serbian government emphasise the imperative to prioritise essential state interests over an ostensibly ‘existential’ threat to the Serbian economy when making decisions about the direction of foreign policy.

Date: 2025
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:pocoec:v:37:y:2025:i:1-2:p:51-74

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DOI: 10.1080/14631377.2024.2439723

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