EconPapers    
Economics at your fingertips  
 

Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data

Doron Sonsino () and Tal Shavit

Quantitative Finance, 2014, vol. 14, issue 4, 641-655

Abstract: The experimental approach was applied to test the value of historical return series in technical prediction. Return sequences were randomly drawn cross-sectionally and over time from S&P500 records and participants were asked to predict the 13th realization from 12 preceding returns. The hypothesis that predictions (nominal or real) are randomly assigned to historical sequences is rejected in permutation tests, and the best-stock portfolios by experimental predictions significantly outperform the worst-stock portfolios in joint examination of mean return and volatility. The participants dynamically adjust their predictions to the observed series and switch from momentum riding to contrarian extrapolation when recent trends get extreme. The implicit tuning of predictions to specific series captures variabilities that could not be inferred by schematic statistical forecasting.

Date: 2014
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2012.712210 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:4:p:641-655

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

Access Statistics for this article

Quantitative Finance is currently edited by Michael Dempster and Jim Gatheral

More articles in Quantitative Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().

 
Page updated 2019-09-04
Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:14:y:2014:i:4:p:641-655