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A factor contagion model for portfolio credit derivatives

Geon Ho Choe, Hyun Jin Jang and Soon Won Kwon

Quantitative Finance, 2015, vol. 15, issue 9, 1571-1582

Abstract: We propose a factor contagion model with the Marshall-Olkin copula for correlated default times and develop an analytic approach for finding the th default time distribution based on our model. We combine a factor copula model with a contagion model under the assumption that the individual default intensities follow contagion processes, and that the default times have a dependence structure with the Marshall-Olkin copula. Then, we derive an analytic formula for the th default time distribution and apply it to compute the price of portfolio credit derivatives, such as th-to-default swaps and single-tranche CDOs. To test efficiency and accuracy of our formula, we compare the theoretical prediction with existing methods.

Date: 2015
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DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2014.976651

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