What good is a volatility model?

Robert Engle and Andrew Patton

Quantitative Finance, 2001, vol. 1, issue 2, 237-245

Abstract: A volatility model must be able to forecast volatility; this is the central requirement in almost all financial applications. In this paper we outline some stylized facts about volatility that should be incorporated in a model: pronounced persistence and mean-reversion, asymmetry such that the sign of an innovation also affects volatility and the possibility of exogenous or pre-determined variables influencing volatility. We use data on the Dow Jones Industrial Index to illustrate these stylized facts, and the ability of GARCH-type models to capture these features. We conclude with some challenges for future research in this area.

Date: 2001
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DOI: 10.1088/1469-7688/1/2/305

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