A tale of two sentiment scales: disentangling short-run and long-run components in multivariate sentiment dynamics

Danilo Vassallo, Giacomo Bormetti and Fabrizio Lillo

Quantitative Finance, 2022, vol. 22, issue 12, 2237-2255

Abstract: The digitalization of news and social media provides an unprecedented source to investigate the role of information on market dynamics. However, the observed sentiment time-series represent a noisy proxy of the true investor sentiment. Moreover, modeling the joint dynamics of different sentiment series can be beneficial for the assessment of their economic relevance. The main methodological contribution of this paper is twofold: (i) we filter the latent sentiment signals in a genuinely multivariate model; (ii) we propose a decomposition into a long-term random walk component, named long-term sentiment, and a short-term component driven by a stationary Vector Autoregressive process of order one, named short-term sentiment. The proposed framework is a dynamic factor model describing the joint evolution of the observed sentiments of a portfolio of assets. Empirically, we find that the long-term sentiment co-integrates with the market price factor, while the short-term sentiment captures transient and firm-specific swings. By means of quantile regressions, we assess the significance of the explanatory power of filtered present sentiment on future returns. Then, we demonstrate how the lagged relation can be successfully exploited in a portfolio allocation exercise.

Date: 2022
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2022.2119159 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:quantf:v:22:y:2022:i:12:p:2237-2255

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2022.2119159

Access Statistics for this article

Quantitative Finance is currently edited by Michael Dempster and Jim Gatheral

More articles in Quantitative Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().