Statistical inference for the first-order autoregressive process with the fractional Gaussian noise

Yinzhong Huang, Weilin Xiao and Xiaojian Yu

Quantitative Finance, 2024, vol. 24, issue 10, 1509-1527

Abstract: While the statistical inference of first-order autoregressive processes driven by independent and identically distributed noises has a long history, the statistical analysis for first-order autoregressive processes driven by dependent noises is more recent. This paper considers the problem of estimating all the unknown parameters in first-order autoregressive processes driven by the fractional Gaussian noise, which is a self-similar stochastic process used to model persistent or anti-persistent dependency structures in observed time series. The estimation procedure is built upon the marriage of the log-periodogram regression and the method of moments. The usual asymptotic properties, including consistency and asymptotic normality, are established under some mild conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method. Finally, the estimation methods are applied to model some realized volatility time series, where we find that the realized volatility is rough. Moreover, the proposed model is compared with some alternative models, including the first-order autoregressive process driven by the standard Gaussian noise, the heterogeneous autoregression model with lag structure (1,5,21) (HAR(1,5,21)), the autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average model (ARFIMA(1,d,0)) and the scaled fractional Brownian motion, in forecasting the logarithmic realized volatility.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2024.2398621

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