A common shock model for multidimensional electricity intraday price modelling with application to battery valuation

Thomas Deschatre and Xavier Warin

Quantitative Finance, 2024, vol. 24, issue 8, 1157-1176

Abstract: In this paper, we propose a multidimensional statistical model of intraday electricity prices at the scale of the trading session, which allows all products to be simulated simultaneously. This model, based on Poisson measures and inspired by the Common Shock Poisson Model, reproduces the Samuelson effect (intensity and volatility increases as time to maturity decreases). It also reproduces the price correlation structure, highlighted here in the data, which decreases as two maturities move apart. This model has only three parameters that can be estimated using a moment method that we propose here. We demonstrate the usefulness of the model on a case of storage valuation by dynamic programming over a trading session.

Date: 2024
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/14697688.2024.2395906 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:quantf:v:24:y:2024:i:8:p:1157-1176

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20

DOI: 10.1080/14697688.2024.2395906

Access Statistics for this article

Quantitative Finance is currently edited by Michael Dempster and Jim Gatheral

More articles in Quantitative Finance from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().