Convergence and Divergence of UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions

Scott R. Stephenson, Neil Oculi, Alex Bauer and Stephanie Carhuayano

Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2019, vol. 109, issue 4, 1240-1261

Abstract: The wide spectrum of national priorities and attendant climate positions among parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been a hallmark of international climate negotiations. The Paris Agreement was lauded as a landmark step toward global climate action because it represented a consensus of more than 190 countries. Taken in a vacuum, however, the agreement masks important differences in climate positions and capabilities among its signatory parties. Because the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) are the key instruments of post-Paris climate commitments, analysis of salient themes revealed in the NDCs is critical to understanding the dynamics of climate negotiations. We present a quantitative content analysis of 165 NDCs to investigate convergence and divergence in the positions of UNFCCC parties and party groupings. We use a hierarchical cluster analysis based on references to key terms of climate discourse to measure the internal cohesion of traditional party groupings and emergent coalitions. Our analysis shows that the greatest difference in NDC content occurs between the Annex I (composed mainly of the Umbrella Group, European Union, Environmental Integrity Group, and unaffiliated parties) and non-Annex I countries. Furthermore, we show that the landscape of climate priorities is considerably more complex than a binary Annex I–non-Annex I divide, as indicated by convergence on climate action between large developing economies and smaller, less developed, active negotiator groupings. Understanding congruence and disparities among NDCs, and their potential to promote cooperation or division among parties, will be critical to developing equitable and sustainable long-term climate solutions. Key Words: climate change, climate policy, cluster analysis, NDC, UNFCCC.

Date: 2019
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/24694452.2018.1536533 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:raagxx:v:109:y:2019:i:4:p:1240-1261

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/raag21

DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2018.1536533

Access Statistics for this article

Annals of the American Association of Geographers is currently edited by Jennifer Cassidento

More articles in Annals of the American Association of Geographers from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().