Heterogeneous Perceptions of Rainfall Patterns Among Agropastoral Land Users in Sub-Saharan Africa

Susan M. Kotikot, Erica A. H. Smithwick, Jedidah Nankaya, Sarah Gergel, Karl S. Zimmerer and Romulus Abila

Annals of the American Association of Geographers, 2025, vol. 115, issue 6, 1286-1308

Abstract: Human perceptions about climate change constitute knowledge built on lived experiences and such information is useful for guiding effective local-level adaptation strategies. Yet, such perceptions are rarely included in climate change adaptation plans, nor are such perceptions evaluated alongside climate-related data. People’s perceptions about climate change need to be considered, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where the impacts of climate change are more pronounced. In this study, we compared Kenyan farmers’ and pastoralists’ perceptions of change in rainfall patterns (amount and variability) to observed rainfall (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station rainfall data). We also compared both farmers’ and pastoralists’ perceptions of crop and pasture productivity to remote-sensed estimates of productivity. Overall, crop farmers and pastoralists perceived a decrease in rainfall amount and increase in variability alongside perceived decreases in crop yields and pasture abundance. Perceptions were heterogeneous across space, however, and not consistent with rainfall or productivity observations. Using ordination, we further identified perception archetypes that differed by household socioeconomic characteristics and geographic setting, whereby pastoralists perceived greater changes in both rainfall amount, variability, and productivity than other land users. These results revealed heterogeneous patterns that situate household-level perceptions within landscapes, demonstrating the need for multiscalar management of social-ecological systems. We conclude that there are important differences in perceived patterns of climate impacts that are not captured by commonly used Earth observation products. To ensure adaptation strategies address the lived experiences of communities, better integration of perceived climate change impacts into climate change adaptation planning might be needed.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/24694452.2025.2482899

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