Population dividend and economic growth in China, 1978–2018

Cai Fang

China Economic Journal, 2018, vol. 11, issue 3, 243-258

Abstract: China witnessed important demographic transitions during the past 40 years. The significant decline in fertility rate, as a result of both policy change and economic factors, generated the so-called population dividends – rising proportion of working age population – during the past several decades. This paper demonstrates important channels through which broadly defined population dividends contribute to economic growth in China, by magnifying roles of capital, by improving labor quality, alongside increases in labor supply, and by strengthening labor mobility. As population aging now takes over from population dividends as the main demographic trend, it is possible for China to continue its strong growth by focusing on both the traditional growth factors, such as further reducing the proportion of agricultural workers, and new growth factors, such as further improving productivity by strengthening human capital and weakening institutional obstacles.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2018.1509529

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