Openness, growth convergence and China’s development prospects

Xun Wang

China Economic Journal, 2020, vol. 13, issue 1, 82-108

Abstract: This paper examines China’s long-term growth prospects and the potential drivers of future growth, based on cross-country productivity convergence and China’s featured demographic evolution. In a nonlinear open economy catch-up growth model, per capital GDP growth of the followers depend on that of the leading economy and time varying convergence of the relative per capita GDP. Comparable open economies of China are identified in terms of relative per capita GDP and the historical data of which are used to project China’s trajectory of productivity convergence and then the growth of per capita GDP. Projection shows China’s future GDP growth will gradually descend from 6.6–6.7% (2016–2020) to 2.6–2.7% (2046–2050) in low variant. Predictions under medium and high variants are provided as well. The importance of further opening-up domestic markets, elimination of birth control policies and accumulation of human capital in the process of promoting urbanization are highlighted and have significant implications for the economic restructuring and transformation of China.Abbreviations: ICRG: International Country Risk Guide; IMF: International Monetary Fund

Date: 2020
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rcejxx:v:13:y:2020:i:1:p:82-108

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rcej20

DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2019.1591574

Access Statistics for this article

China Economic Journal is currently edited by Tiechang Gao and Yiping Huang

More articles in China Economic Journal from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().