Optimal public debt under demographic changes in China

Lixin Sun

China Economic Journal, 2023, vol. 16, issue 1, 28-43

Abstract: In this paper, we use an overlapping-generations model to estimate the optimal public debt level in terms of the growth-maximizing theory under changing demographics and examine the fiscal sustainability in China. The results suggest that the optimal level of public debt in China lies in a scope of 70% to 88%, which varies as a function of the driving force of the production, the number of children, and the subsidy policy for rearing the children. On the basis of fiscal space framework, we can conclude that China’s public debt and thereby the fiscal position is sustainable in the near and medium terms. Sensitivity analyses and robustness tests also support our empirical findings. Our study provides insights into public debt management, population policy, and strategies for economic growth in China.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/17538963.2022.2033394 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rcejxx:v:16:y:2023:i:1:p:28-43

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rcej20

DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2022.2033394

Access Statistics for this article

China Economic Journal is currently edited by Tiechang Gao and Yiping Huang

More articles in China Economic Journal from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().