Understanding the recent performance of China's stock market

Zhixiong Zeng and Xiaoli Wan

China Economic Journal, 2008, vol. 1, issue 2, 213-225

Abstract: Employing time-series extrapolation and an out-of-sample forecast based on a bivariate VAR (vector auto-regression), we argue that the current boom of China's stock market represents a recovery that corrects the previous divergence of the stock market from the aggregate economic performance. Nevertheless, we caution that the speed of the recent rise in stock prices is alarming. If the current speed continues, then the stock market will soon become overheated in the sense that the level of stock prices will exceed the level justified by economic fundamentals.

Date: 2008
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DOI: 10.1080/17538960802076737

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