Uncertainty and risk analysis of the Langrun Chinese GDP Forecast: Fan Charts revisited

Hao Yu

China Economic Journal, 2011, vol. 4, issue 2-3, 81-104

Abstract: In this paper, we develop a fan chart methodology for Chinese economic growth to incorporate uncertainty analysis into the gross domestic product growth forecast. Using the ‘Langrun Forecast’ project results exclusively, we estimate the density distribution for Chinese gross domestic product growth forecasts and build corresponding fan charts for the first time. Our analysis shows that the fan chart method effectively highlights the overall uncertainty and balance of risks surrounding Chinese gross domestic product growth, especially during the past international financial crisis between 2007 and 2009. Wallis' interval forecast test is conducted to evaluate the performance of the produced fan charts, and the results indicate that our forecasts perform well for the period being investigated.

Date: 2011
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DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2011.666056

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