Clarification of misled statistic data: overestimated per-capita housing area

Xin Li and Dianqing Xu

China Economic Journal, 2013, vol. 6, issue 2-3, 134-151

Abstract: The per-capita urban housing area determines trends in the real estate market largely. These trends are important in formulating economic policies. The China Statistical Yearbook provides two groups of data for ‘per-capita urban housing.’ The demand–supply situation of the Chinese housing market must be analyzed and predicted by using different versions of data. This study uses data from Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of the People’s Republic of China, which comprise projected timing comparative data of the Chinese per-capita urban housing area, and predicts the future demand–supply situation of the Chinese housing market using the Gompertz model. The result shows that the per-capita urban housing area has declined since 2001, but the tight trend of the Chinese real estate market and the pressure of rising house prices will last for a relatively long time. The construction speed of commercial houses will only slow down if the urbanization proportion reaches 75%.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/17538963.2013.860681

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