Are shocks to Singapore's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory? An application of stationarity test with structural breaks

Siow-Hooi Tan and Siow-Kian Tan

Current Issues in Tourism, 2014, vol. 17, issue 6, 480-486

Abstract: This study aims to test if the impact of shocks to Singapore's tourism industry is permanent or transitory by investigating the unit root properties of international tourist arrivals to Singapore from 20 source markets. The results reveal that the tourist arrivals to Singapore are stationary with multiple structural breaks, implying any shocks will have only a transitory effect. Based on the break dates identified, a growth rate analysis is performed. Specifically, the growth rates for tourist arrivals to Singapore from 13 out of the 20 source markets have decreased after the break in 2005. The results provide some implications for policy-makers.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2013.822854

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