Prediction, explanation and big(ger) data: a middle way to measuring and modelling the perceived success of a volunteer tourism sustainability campaign based on ‘nudging’

Steven Jackson

Current Issues in Tourism, 2016, vol. 19, issue 7, 643-658

Abstract: The overall aim of this paper was to explore the dichotomy between explanation and prediction and to suggest that there is a middle way. Explanation has often been the domain of academics while prediction has often been the domain of businesses. The former have frequently used smaller sample sizes, the latter larger sample sizes and now increasingly data that have high volume, high velocity, and high variety, i.e. big data. These differences may place the parties at opposite ends of a spectrum which suggests that there is a middle way. This middle way uses ‘automatic linear modelling’ that can cope with big data and presents the results as visualisations. An example is outlined based on a sustainability campaign involving leaders in the context of volunteer tourism. The campaign used an informational ‘nudge’ approach. The results of the study are discussed in relation to both the application of the technique and the success of the campaign. It is pointed out that the technique is exploratory but can aid both prediction and theory building in the area of volunteer tourism and that academics must not be afraid to embrace new methods that may be less conventional but bring the universities and industry closer together.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2014.898616

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