Identifying structural changes and regime switching in growing and declining inbound tourism markets in Australia

Abbas Valadkhani and Barry O'Mahony

Current Issues in Tourism, 2018, vol. 21, issue 3, 277-300

Abstract: This paper examines the dynamic changes in the number of tourists arriving in Australia from 53 markets using monthly data (1991m1–2014m4). A modified capital asset pricing model incorporating Markov switching and Bai–Perron search models is adopted to measure the extent to which individual arrival series exhibit systematic co-movements in relation to total arrivals as a global composite barometer. The study identifies 15 large and growing markets from different countries and regions with the switching/shifting betas greater than +1, suggesting a diverse portfolio that, if properly managed, will continue to sustain Australia's tourism industry. The study presents a series of marketing and promotion strategies to improve marketing efficiency and implications for further research are discussed.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2015.1072504

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