Improving the forecasting of inbound tourism demand based on the mixed-frequency data sampling approach: evidence from Australia

Yuting Gong, Mengjie Jin, Kum Fai Yuen, Xueqin Wang and Wenming Shi

Current Issues in Tourism, 2025, vol. 28, issue 17, 2744-2763

Abstract: This study explores how the mixed-frequency data sampling (MIDAS) approach enhances the forecasting of Australia’s inbound tourism demand by employing an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL)-MIDAS model. The main findings are as follows: First, after capturing the effects of control variables, both daily exchange rate returns and daily exchange rate volatility affect Australia’s inbound tourism demand. Second, the monthly growth rate of inbound tourist arrivals follows a mean-reverting process and incorporating its historical fluctuation information from the past 3 months significantly increases the explanatory power of the ARDL-MIDAS model. Third, the results of the out-of-sample predictive performance indicate that the two MIDAS-based models significantly outperform the benchmark model and the other two candidate models due to the incorporation of intra-month exchange rate information. These findings provide insights into the forecasting of inbound tourism demand and lay the foundation for further tourism business planning, resource allocation, and policymaking.

Date: 2025
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13683500.2024.2381248 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rcitxx:v:28:y:2025:i:17:p:2744-2763

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rcit20

DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2024.2381248

Access Statistics for this article

Current Issues in Tourism is currently edited by Jennifer Tunstall

More articles in Current Issues in Tourism from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().