The diffusion of COVID-19 across Italian provinces: a spatial dynamic panel data approach with common factors

Lisa Gianmoena and Vicente Rios

Regional Studies, 2024, vol. 58, issue 2, 285-305

Abstract: This study adopts a spatial dynamic panel data model with common factors and a connectivity matrix based on cross-province population flows to help explain the spread of COVID-19 infections across Italian provinces during the period 2020–21. We find that an increase in the infections in a province has a positive and statistically significant effect on neighbours’ infections, which highlights the relevance of spatial spillover effects. This finding is robust to several robustness checks. Furthermore, we investigate cross-provincial transmission heterogeneity using a heterogeneous spatial dynamic panel, which provides novel insights into the diffusion patterns of the disease.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2023.2171000

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