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Right and yet wrong: a politico-economic perspective on Germany’s early COVID-19 policy

Michael Berlemann and Erik Haustein

Regional Studies, 2024, vol. 58, issue 2, 306-321

Abstract: Applying a spatio-temporal endemic–epidemic forecasting model, we evaluate different perspectives on the adequacy of COVID-19 containment policies. Using Germany’s early containment policy as an example, we show that containment policies judged as rational based on the real-time perspective of policymakers may be deemed unnecessary or ineffective in ex-post evaluations. We also demonstrate that one-size-fits-all policies implemented in Germany early in the pandemic are likely suboptimal.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2023.2176478

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