Floods, terrorist attacks and the COVID-19 pandemic: the relationship between the (de)centralisation of power and the rally around the flag

Ignacio Lago and André Blais

Regional Studies, 2025, vol. 59, issue 1, 2224836

Abstract: This article examines whether rally effects when an unexpected calamity occurs are affected by the degree of (de)centralisation of power. We argue that when the national government is exclusively in charge of the policy affected by the calamity, the rally should be comparatively greater than when the responsibility is shared between several levels of government. The argument is tested using observational data from national legislative and presidential elections after 423 major floods, 226 terrorist attacks and 61 pandemics. We find that it is only in centralised countries that incumbent governments perform better under a more severe pandemic.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/00343404.2023.2224836

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