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Real Estate in the Real World: Dealing with Non-Normality and Risk in an Asset Allocation Model

Mark Coleman and Asieh Mansour

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 2005, vol. 11, issue 1, 37-53

Abstract: Executive Summary. Quantitative models of asset allocation are increasingly used by institutional commercial real estate investors as a guide for investment strategy. Real estate as an asset class, however, does not conform well to many of the assumptions underlying standard mean-variance optimization. This paper outlines a model of allocation that addresses two important “real world” violations of these assumptions. First, the assumption that returns are normally distributed is relaxed; instead, returns are modeled using a distribution that allows for both the “fat-tailed” behavior and skewness seen in asset returns. Second, an alternative to the traditional MPT optimizer is employed—the so called “downside deviation” model—that better reflects the observed behavior of investors.

Date: 2005
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2005.12089714

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