Survival of the Fittest: Competition, Consolidation and Growth in the Assisted Living Industry

Jerry Doctrow, Glenn Mueller and Lauren Craig

Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, 1999, vol. 5, issue 3, 225-234

Abstract: Executive Summary. This article reviews existing static demand models commonly used in seniors housing industry research to estimate demand for assisted living facilities and advances a new dynamic model for estimating the effective demand of assisted living facilities. The new model considers the number of age-, income-and disability-qualified seniors that can reasonably be expected to move to assisted living annually from independent residences, other assisted living facilities and skilled nursing facilities. It then compares this effective demand to the number of assisted living units that must be re-rented annually due to high resident turnover and concludes that the effective demand for assisted living is less than many current industry estimates. It proposes new implications for the impact of lower effective demand of new assisted living units for the industry and investors.

Date: 1999
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.1999.12089581

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