Risk arbitrage in emerging Europe: are cross-border mergers and acquisition deals more risky?

Alin Marius Andrieș and Cătălina Alexandra Vîrlan

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2017, vol. 30, issue 1, 1367-1389

Abstract: Speculation spread in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), measured as the percentage difference between the offer price and the closing stock price of a target the day after the announcement, is the starting point for risk arbitrage returns, a topic receiving greater consideration both in practice and in the empirical literature. Reflecting the degree of risk in merger arbitrage investments, we found no significant difference between the speculation spread in domestic and foreign Polish deals, between 2000 and 2013. However, we found higher returns for cross-border portfolio, therefore investors seem more pessimistic with regards to the expected risk in cross-border deals. Also, on average, deal spreads do not correctly reflect the level of risk in merger arbitrage strategies with Polish targets.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2017.1355259

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