Modelling European sovereign default probabilities with copulas

Beata Szetela, Grzegorz Mentel and Jacek Brożyna

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2019, vol. 32, issue 1, 1716-1726

Abstract: The goal of this article is to investigate a dependence among sovereign countries’ risk of default. The analysis was based on data for 42 European countries during the period 1994–2013. Three models were used to calculate default probabilities: Li’s based on transition matrix and prudent unconditional and conditional on previous defaults estimation technique for low default portfolios. The relationship was analysed through the use of different types of copulas. The analysis has shown no regularity in a selection of the optimal copula. The results differ based on the model and rating grade combination used.

Date: 2019
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2019.1629325

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