Aging and economic growth: is there a role for a two-child policy in China?

Yong Liu

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2020, vol. 33, issue 1, 438-455

Abstract: The current study seeks to determine the type of population policy China should implement to effectively promote economic growth, especially in the context of its aging population. Using multiagent simulation technology, I integrate the two-child policy into a complex model featuring population, resources, and economic growth. My simulation results indicate that under the constraining effect of aging on economic growth, the implementation of a two-child policy alone could promote economic growth, albeit in a limited fashion: it would be more economically advantageous to combine a two-child policy with policy that promotes human capital growth. These findings provide new evidence regarding the relationship between population aging and economic growth. It is insufficient to emphasize only a liberalization of birth restrictions and promote population growth: rather, a combination of various policies would be more successful. A cluster of policies that aim to increase both fertility and investment in human capital can effectively curb economic recession otherwise caused by an aging population, and such a policy cluster could concurrently increase the supply of new labor and improve skills that appreciate with age.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2019.1699436

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