Welfare consequences of inconsistent monetary policy implementation in Vietnam

Le Thanh Ha, To Trung Thanh and Thang Doan

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2020, vol. 33, issue 1, 555-578

Abstract: We develop a New Keynesian model featuring Calvo price setting and Calvo wage setting to quantify the welfare consequences of shifting trend inflation in Vietnam. To capture the characteristics of the Vietnamese economy, we use the Simulated Method of Moment and calibrate parameters jointly to match the important selected moments of Vietnamese data. The results show a severe consequence of a constant positive trend inflation and an exogenous shock to trend inflation, especially when a central bank sets a high level of inflation target. Among staggered price and wage contracts, the latter play a vital role in transmitting the adverse impacts of constant and shifting trend inflation into the economy. Based on our analyses, raising inflation targets would seem to be a bad policy prescription in Vietnam.

Date: 2020
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2020.1724172

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