Early bird catches the worm: finding the most effective early warning indicators of recessions

Filip Bašić and Tomislav Globan

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2023, vol. 36, issue 1, 2120040

Abstract: The paper examines whether certain macrofinancial indicators can be used for early detection of recessions. Analysing a sample of small open economies from Central and Eastern European Union, we first identify the most important indicators used for early detection of recessions, and then test the validity of the selection by using the signal method and multivariate probit regressions. Our results imply that the most effective predictors of upcoming recessions are the slope of the yield curve, current account balance to GDP ratio, real estate price index, self-financing ratio of commercial banks, nominal effective exchange rate, global exports and LIBOR rate. Using the Mann-Whitney U Test, we also find that foreign indicators emit earlier signals of incoming recessions in analysed countries than domestic ones. This type of research is important because of the various stakeholders that base their decisions on the signals provided by these indicators. Primarily, these are various government agencies that participate in monetary and fiscal policy making. Early warning of an impending recession allows economic policy makers to take corrective action to avoid a recession or to significantly mitigate its effects, while unreliable indicators may lead to adoption of unnecessary measures with adverse effects on the economy.

Date: 2023
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1331677X.2022.2120040 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:reroxx:v:36:y:2023:i:1:p:2120040

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rero20

DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2022.2120040

Access Statistics for this article

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja is currently edited by Marinko Skare

More articles in Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().