Studying the cyclicality of the economy and prediction of new high risk of economic crises: a case study on the European countries from 1995 to 2018

Ana Maria Mihaela Iordache, Ionela-Cătălina Zamfir and Ionescu Alexandru

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2023, vol. 36, issue 1, 296-311

Abstract: From ancient time the economies had periods of expansion followed by recession, each crisis was determined by various internal or external factors. With globalization, economic interconnection and the liberalization of resource exchange between states, high risk of economic crises have sprung up. The main purpose of the article is to determine a data model, using specific data analysis techniques, and based on it to study the economic cyclicality in Europe and the prediction of a possible economic crisis. The study was conducted on a number of 37 indicators selected from 11 categories, a set of 29 countries in Europe and over a period of 24 years (1995 − 2018) using the K-Means algorithm. Grouping the data for each country in three classes and describing each class by taking into account the variables with the highest discriminative power, leads to the main conclusion that in the next several years, an economic crisis in Europe has a high probability to be a reality.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2022.2076143

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