Is presidential popularity a threat or encouragement for investors?

Chi-Wei Su, Xi Yuan, Muhammad Umar and Tsangyao Chang

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 2023, vol. 36, issue 2, 2129409

Abstract: The economic situation of the post-epidemic is facing huge downward risks, and the government actively introduces stimulus measures to improve the current economic situation. In this crisis, the president’s role in asset price gradually deepened. Hence, we utilise a wavelet-based quantile-on-quantile approach to uncover the complex and unstable relationships between presidential popularity and the currency performance of asset price. We find the significant negative impact of the government popularity on the stock market and oil prices, especially in the medium quantile. This suggests that political stalemates will not always be suitable for financial markets. Instead, this will hinder the investment because it expresses the uncertainty of the direction. On the contrary, the U.S. dollar presents a highly positive relationship with the government popularity. Investors can avoid the trust risk of the president through the adjustment of the asset portfolio. The result is consistent with the asset pricing model, suggesting that investor sentiments significantly influence the performance of assets. Meanwhile, the duration of impacts caused by short-term shock will eventually be repaired for a long time. The approval ratings will harm the investor sentiment in the short term, but the market will digest this over time.

Date: 2023
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DOI: 10.1080/1331677X.2022.2129409

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