From terrorism to talakawa: explaining party turnover in Nigeria's 2015 elections

A. Carl LeVan, Matthew T. Page and Yoonbin Ha

Review of African Political Economy, 2018, vol. 45, issue 157, 432-450

Abstract: What explains the 2015 defeat of Nigeria's ruling party by a new party less than two years old? Despite a spike in terrorism and widespread public complaints about government waste, the authors find that neither violence nor patronage systematically explains voting patterns. Instead, statistical evidence points to state-level economic performance and perceptions of national economy. Using surveys, original variables measuring economic performance and – for the first time – presidential election results at the local government level, the authors demonstrate that ‘economic voting’ helped the opposition. They attribute opposition success to a ‘talakawa effect’ rooted in a class-based coalition.

Date: 2018
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DOI: 10.1080/03056244.2018.1456415

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