The Causal Impact of the Taliban’s Insurgency and Return to Power on Economic Well-being in Afghanistan

Musa Shafiq and Mohammad Qasim Wafayezada

The Review of Faith & International Affairs, 2023, vol. 21, issue 3, 86-102

Abstract: This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertainty associated with the US policy shift and reduced international aid on Afghanistan's economic well-being. Additionally, the study conducts a counterfactual analysis to assess the hypothetical impact if the Taliban insurgency or restoration had not occurred. The findings demonstrate that international aid has not contributed to sustainable economic well-being, and that the policy shift of the US from counter-terrorism toward engaging in negotiations with the Taliban, has resulted in a significant economic decline. This research offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between aid dependency, insurgency, political uncertainty, and economic well-being in fragile and aid-dependent states like Afghanistan.

Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/15570274.2023.2235828 (text/html)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:taf:rfiaxx:v:21:y:2023:i:3:p:86-102

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/rfia20

DOI: 10.1080/15570274.2023.2235828

Access Statistics for this article

The Review of Faith & International Affairs is currently edited by Dennis R. Hoover

More articles in The Review of Faith & International Affairs from Taylor & Francis Journals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Chris Longhurst ().