Demographic Change in the Asia-Pacific: The Effect on Average Living Standards

Ross Guest

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2006, vol. 11, issue 3, 229-248

Abstract: This paper applies a simulation model to identify the impact of prospective demographic change on average living standards over the next 50 years in each of 12 Asia-Pacific countries. The impact on living standards depends on the country's stage of demographic transition. For countries that are already experiencing population ageing, such as Japan, Singapore, Australia and New Zealand, impending demographic change has an immediate negative impact on living standards. But young countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Philippines, derive a dividend from impending demographic change that could, with an appropriate saving response, impact positively on living standards for at least the next 50 years.

Date: 2006
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860600764310

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