Trends and forecasting of employment intensity of growth in India

Falguni Pattanaik and Narayan Nayak

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2013, vol. 18, issue 3, 438-459

Abstract: In the labour surplus Indian economy, growth must ensure high employment. In order to examine how employment has evolved over time with output, this study analyses the trends of employment intensity of growth in India at the aggregate and across broad sectors for the period 1961–2004 and forecasts the same for the future applying the Box-Jenkins ARIMA model. The results indicate that India has been experiencing jobless growth since the 1990s primarily due to the failure of manufacturing and services. The forecasting results reveal possible improvement in employment elasticity of secondary sector, whereas tertiary sector would continue to remain a concern. The dependence on primary sector would continue to rise, leading to its negative labour productivity.

Date: 2013
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2012.742693

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