Time-varying comparison of the effectiveness of China’s price- and quantity-based monetary policy tools: an empirical analysis based on the TVP-FA-S-VAR model

Dayu Liu, Yang Song and Dekai Chen

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2024, vol. 29, issue 2, 949-971

Abstract: In order to compare the effectiveness of China’s price- and quantity-based monetary policy tools over time, we develop a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameter and factor augmentation (TVP-FA-S-VAR model) to analyze the response of output gap to monetary policy shocks. We find that price-based regulation becomes increasingly effective as China’s interest rate liberalization proceeds, while the effects of broad money supply on output have been diminishing. Additionally, as it becomes harder to measure the effectiveness of quantity-based regulation, China’s central bank has been more prudent to rely on quantitative intermediaries. Moreover, as much as 40% residual information of the Taylor rule will be omitted using price-based intermediaries, while factor augmentation fails to increase the explanatory power of quantitative intermediaries significantly. The correlation between quantitative intermediaries and the real economy has been weakening, so that the quantity-based monetary policy tools are no longer suitable for government intervention in China.HIGHLIGHTSWe develop a structural vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameter and factor augmentation (TVP-FA-S-VAR model) to analyze the response of output gap to monetary policy shocks.We find that price-based regulation becomes increasingly effective as China’s interest rate liberalization proceeds, while the effects of broad money supply on output have been diminishing.China’s central bank has been more prudent to rely on quantitative intermediaries.As much as 40% residual information of the Taylor rule will be omitted using price-based intermediaries, while factor augmentation fails to increase the explanatory power of quantitative intermediaries significantly.The correlation between quantitative intermediaries and the real economy has been weakening, so that the quantity-based monetary policy tools are no longer suitable for government intervention in China.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2022.2082162

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