What affects the fraction of collateral-constrained households in the housing market? The case of Taiwan

Shiou-Yen Chu

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2024, vol. 29, issue 3, 1622-1649

Abstract: This research develops a Two-Agent New Keynesian (TANK) framework with household type switching to investigate the determinants of a time-varying fraction of collateral-constrained households. As a practical application, the model is estimated with Taiwanese data via Bayesian methods. We first validate our model to fit the business cycle properties of Taiwan during 2008Q1–2019Q4 and analyze the dynamics of the fraction of collateral-constrained households in responses to preference shocks, sectoral productivity shocks and interest rate shocks. The results indicate that the fraction of collateral-constrained households increases with higher output growth, more housing consumption, higher interest rates and higher expected housing prices. Our findings affirm that collateral-constrained households are generally more sensitive to income changes than interest rate changes. They also imply that maintaining a fairly reasonable property price can ensure an adequate fraction of collateral-constrained households as well as stabilize the housing market in Taiwan.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2022.2116884

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