Exploring precise poverty alleviation policies based on causal inference: a case study from China

Qing Guo, Youyang Liu and Min Zhu

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2024, vol. 29, issue 4, 2170-2190

Abstract: To explore the effect of targeted poverty alleviation policies in Guangdong Province from the perspective of causal inference, this paper conducts quantitative research based on panel data of poverty-stricken counties in Guangdong Province from 2013 to 2020. Specifically, breakpoint regression is used to analyze the initial effect of the policy, instrumental variables are used to analyze the long-term effect of the policy implementation, and finally, the generalized comprehensive control method is used to make a comparative study. The results show that: (1) The targeted poverty alleviation policy in Guangdong Province has a remarkable effect on poverty reduction; (2) The effect of targeted poverty alleviation policy is still remarkable by comparing the implemented policy with the unimplemented one in Guangdong Province; (3) The improvement of market economic activity can effectively promote the increase of farmers’ personal net income in poor areas of Guangdong Province.

Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2023.2264091

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