A Markov switching approach to business cycles in India

Mathew Koshy Odasseril and K. R. Shanmugam

Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 2025, vol. 30, issue 1, 265-281

Abstract: This is the first empirical study that analyzes the nature of business cycles in India using quarterly GDP growth data from 1998Q1 to 2022Q4 and the Markov Switching Auto-regressive model. In order to capture the impact of exclusion and inclusion of post pandemic period data, it has developed two alternative models. Based on these models, the study provides the forecast of quarterly GDP growth and cumulative real output losses due to the pandemic. It also provides alternative scenarios and trajectories of the Indian economy towards the US$ 5 trillion milestone. It is our hope that these results will be useful to policymakers and other stakeholders to understand the business cycle issue in India and take appropriate strategies to overcome the problems associated with these cycles.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2023.2266269

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