Exploring the Dynamics of Building Supply: A Duration Model of the Development Cycle

Mark Coleman and Ralph Gentile

Journal of Real Estate Research, 2001, vol. 21, issue 1-2, 21-42

Abstract: This article is the winner of the Real Estate Development manuscript prize (sponsored by the Urban Land Institute) presented at the 2000 American Real Estate Society Annual Meeting.A noticeable omission in the existing body of applied real estate research is the lack of empirical analysis of the commercial development process. We address this shortcoming by utilizing a large panel database of individual building projects that in principle allows us to follow individual projects through various stages of their development life cycle. We begin by examining the basic distributional and time series characteristics of the development cycle, and then examine how these results vary by stage of construction, property sector and geography. We then estimate unconditional transition probabilities and finally, present preliminary results from a formal, nonparametric duration model.

Date: 2001
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2001.12091046

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