Demography-driven suburban decline? At the crossroads: mature single-family housing estates in Germany

Andrea Berndgen-Kaiser, Kerstin Bläser, Runrid Fox-Kämper, Stefan Siedentop and Philipp Zakrzewski

Journal of Urbanism: International Research on Placemaking and Urban Sustainability, 2014, vol. 7, issue 3, 286-306

Abstract: Germany is one of the Western countries in which the impact of the second demographic transition is most apparent. Among many other effects on socioeconomic systems, demographic shrinkage will seriously challenge the housing market. Recent studies hypothesize that a demography-induced fall in demand could hit not only multi-storey residential buildings but also single-family housing estates. As yet, these claims are not based on convincing empirical evidence. Against this background, this paper aims to address the future perspectives of single-family homes based on 29 case studies and a mixed-methods quantitative and qualitative design. Although the analysed housing estates are still fully occupied, several local policy-makers and real estate experts report on market changes, with pressures on housing prices and a long-term risk of housing vacancies. Finally, the paper presents a framework of strategic action, comprising a range of measures that local authorities can take.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1080/17549175.2013.879456

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