Markov Chain Model of Rent Burden in the Housing Choice Voucher Program

Brent Mast

Journal of Housing Research, 2014, vol. 23, issue 2, 177-202

Abstract: In this study, rent burden in the Housing Choice Voucher Program is modeled as a Markov chain. The model is predictive of rent burden with program tenure, using longitudinal household data for 2000 through 2009. The results indicate rent burden increases for many years after admission. Consistent with results for unassisted low-income households, there is considerable mobility across burden categories over time. The rent burden formula indicates that HUD policy and housing agency policy should not be considered in isolation; estimates imply that their interaction has an effect large in both magnitude and statistical significance. A limitation of the Markov chain model is that it cannot be used to estimate variance; I demonstrate a simple method for doing so via bootstrapping.

Date: 2014
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2014.12092090

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