The Effect of Neighborhood Density and GIS Layout on the Foreclosure Contagion Effect

Daniele Vernon-Bido, Andrew J. Collins, John Sokolowski and Michael Seiler ()

Journal of Housing Research, 2017, vol. 26, issue 2, 137-155

Abstract: Agent-based modeling and simulation has been used to examine the effects of foreclosures on property values and the overall health of the property market. Past agent-based simulations simplistically use an equally-spaced grid structure for the layout of the properties. This simple spacing does not reflect the actual size and dispersion of properties. Instead, we use GIS models of actual neighborhoods to study the impact of size and spacing within a real estate agent-based simulation to investigate the foreclosure contagion effect. The topologies of five neighborhoods in Virginia Beach, Virginia were uploaded into an agent-based simulation using publicly accessible GIS data. The results indicate that non-linear pricing changes occur within the neighborhoods. Moreover, the density of a neighborhood is a significant determining factor in explaining differential results.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/10835547.2017.12092132

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