Oil Prices, the Housing Market, and Spillover Effects: Evidence from California’s Central Valley

Nyakundi Michieka (), Richard S. Gearhart and Yiannis Ampatzidis

Journal of Housing Research, 2021, vol. 30, issue 1, 77-97

Abstract: This paper examines the effects of oil prices on home values in Kern County, California’s top oil producer. Using monthly data from 1990:01 to 2018:03, results from an ARDL model indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between oil prices, unemployment, interest rates, and home values. In the short run, a 1% increase in unemployment and interest rates will decrease home values by 2.06 and 0.82%, respectively. VEDC and GIRFs imply that changes in Kern’s home values will influence home prices in San Bernardino County. Los Angeles has the greatest effect on home sales in Kern County.

Date: 2021
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DOI: 10.1080/10527001.2021.1901546

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