The climate factor in Iranian migration patterns

Mehdi Shiva and Hassan Molana

Middle East Development Journal, 2025, vol. 17, issue 1, 35-57

Abstract: In this study, we conduct an empirical analysis of the link between inter-province migration and local climate conditions in Iran, utilising national census data from 1996 to 2011. We focus on two primary climatic indicators: average annual temperature and precipitation levels. Employing a gravity model framework and spatial methods, our findings reveal a significant impact of these climate variables on migration flows between provinces. Regardless of the varied regression models and estimation techniques applied, our results consistently demonstrate that increased temperatures and decreased precipitation levels are influential drivers of out-migration. This study underscores the critical role of climate factors in shaping internal migration patterns in Iran.

Date: 2025
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DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2025.2504312

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