Migrant mix and election outcomes: a district-level analysis of greater Istanbul metropolitan area

Ali Akarca ()

Middle East Development Journal, 2017, vol. 9, issue 2, 278-293

Abstract: About 40% of the Turkish population resides in a province other than the one in which they or their fathers were born. Forty-three percent of such people live in the greater Istanbul metropolitan area (Istanbul, Kocaeli and Yalova provinces) and make up 82% of its population. Whether party preferences differ between migrants and natives, and between migrants from different parts of Turkey are studied with the help of robust regressions. It is shown that 2011 vote shares of the three major political parties at various districts of the metropolitan area in question can be explained by the proportions of immigrants from different regions living at these districts. This conclusion is not altered even after socioeconomic and demographic differences between the districts are controlled. Thus, a strong region-of-origin effect is found on the party choices of internal migrants.

Date: 2017
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DOI: 10.1080/17938120.2017.1359058

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