Home advantage in football: Examining the effect of scoring first on match outcome in the five major European leagues

Carlos Lago-Peñas, Miguel Gómez-Ruano, Diego Megías-Navarro and Richard Pollard

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 2016, vol. 16, issue 2, 411-421

Abstract: The aim of the current study was to examine the importance of scoring the first goal on the match outcome in football and to determine if this influence depends on the minute in which the first goal is scored. The sample consisted in all the matches played in the season 2014/2015 in the English FA Premier League (n=380), French Ligue 1 (n=380), Spanish La Liga (n=380), Italian Serie A (n=380) and German Bundesliga (n=306). Data were examined using classification tree analysis and a linear regression analysis. The results showed that home teams scored first in 57.8 % of matches and went on the obtain 84.85% of points won in these games. In contrast when the away team scored first, they obtained only 76.25% of subsequent points. These differences were further influenced by the quality of the teams and by the match period in which the first goal was scored. Three independent variables were significant factors on the final outcome: the quality of the opposition (p<0.001), the minute in which the first goal is scored (p<0.01) and the team scoring first (p<0.001). The teams that scored first ended games scoring an average 1.88 goals more than their opponents. Coaches can use this information to establish objectives for players and teams during practices and matches and can be prepared for these different competitive scenarios.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2016.11868897

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