Logistic Regression of Wins and Losses in Asia League Ice Hockey in the 2014-2015 Season

D. H Koo, S. B Panday, D. Y Xu, C. Y Lee and H. Y Kim

International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport, 2016, vol. 16, issue 3, 871-880

Abstract: Scientific data analysis in sports is a valid and widely used method to predict the match outcome and identify the team’s strengths and weakness in order to improve the match strategy. This study analyzed the data sheet of the 2014-2015 season of Asia League Ice Hockey, which includes 432 match results resulting from 9 teams competing from the following 4 nations: South Korea, China, Japan, and Russia. The independent T-test was performed on the winning and losing teams’ match determinants. The logistic regression analysis was conducted to observe the relationship between the determinants and the wins. The results showed significant differences in the number of shots, game situation, number of assisted goals, match location, and so on. In addition, the number of shots in the 1st and 3rd periods, restraining fouls, assisted goals, and match location had a significant impact on winning. In conclusion, to increase the odds of winning in an ice hockey match, a higher number of shots should be attempted during the whole match, especially the 3rd period. However, aggressive match intervention was observed to have a positive effect on the increase in the number of shots and winning the match only during the 3rd period.

Date: 2016
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DOI: 10.1080/24748668.2016.11868935

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